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This paper aims to help understand how adopting risk allocation criteria impacts the delivery of public–private partnership (PPP) mass housing in Nigeria with the view of promoting the adoption of PPP housing scheme in Nigeria.

The research design adopts the census sampling approach by using well-structured questionnaires distributed to stakeholders involved in PPP-procured mass housing projects, i.e. consultants, in-house professionals, contractors and the organized private sector, registered with PPP departments in the Federal Capital Territory Development Authority, Abuja, Nigeria. Sixty-three risk factors, nine risk allocation criteria and nine project delivery indices were submitted for the respondents to rank on a Likert scale of 7. Two hypotheses were formulated to test whether the risk allocation criteria impacted PPP mass housing delivery or otherwise. The study adopts partial least square-structural equation modeling to model the effect of risk on risk allocation criteria on project delivery indices and risk severity.

The finding shows that project risk allocation criteria have less effect on project delivery indices than on risk severity. The study concludes that risk allocation principles do not directly affect the delivery of PPP-procured mass housing projects. This is evident by the path coefficient of 0.724 values, which is not statistically significant at a 5% alpha protection value. The study concludes that allocating critical risk factors influences the performance of PPP-procured mass housing projects, as the path coefficient of 0.360 is also not significantly far from 0 and at a 5% alpha protection value.

The study is one of the recent studies conducted in PPP-procured mass housing projects in Nigeria owing to the novelty of procurement option in the sector. It highlights the risk factors that can jeopardize the PPP-procured mass housing project objectives. The study is of immense value to PPP actors in the sector by providing the necessary information required to formulate risk response methods to minimize the impact of the risk factors in PPP mass housing projects.

The purpose of the study is to elicit risk factors that are peculiar to public-private partnership (PPP)-procured mass housing in Nigeria from the expert perspectives in ensuring the success of the scheme thereby reducing housing deficit in the country.

The risk inherent in construction projects had been established through literature in general. The risk in PPP projects is emerging because of the recent acceptance of the procurement option by governments all over the globe. The Nigerian Government has also adopted the procurement option in bridging the housing deficit in the country. This study, therefore, conducts a Delphi survey on the probability of risk occurrence peculiar to PPP mass housing projects (MHPs) in Nigeria. Pragmatic research approach through the mixed method of both quantitative and qualitative methods was adopted for this study. The quantitative method adopts the administration of questionnaires through the Delphi survey, whereas the qualitative method used interviews with the respondents. A two-stage Delphi questionnaire was administered to construction practitioners that cut across academics, the public and the private sectors by adopting convenient sampling techniques and following the Delphi principles and procedures. A total of 63 risk factors were submitted to the expert to rank on a Likert scale of 7 and any risk factors that the mean item score (MIS) falls below the grading scale of the five-point benchmark is deemed not necessary a risk factor associated with PPP MHPs and thereby expunged from the second round of the Delphi Survey. The interview was subsequently applied to the respondents to substantiate the risk factors that are peculiar to PPP-procured mass housing in the study area.

The findings show that risk factors such as maintenance frequent than expected, life of facility shorter than anticipated and maintenance cost higher than expected fall below 5.0 benchmark with MIS of 4.64 and 4.55 indicating that the risk factors are not peculiar to PPP mass housing in Nigeria.

The implication for practise of this research is that these risk factors provide the PPP stakeholders with the comprehensive checklists that can aid in developing PPP risk assessment guidelines in the sector though both partners should be aware of the dynamic nature of risk because new ones might be emerging.

The authors hereby declare that the research findings are a product of a thorough research conducted in the study area and have not to be submitted or published by another person or publisher and due acknowledgement was made where necessary.